… If we spend 85% of our time focusing on events
that happen 15% of the time,
instead of the other way around,
it can lead to terrible investment behavior…
A Recession On Our Minds
by Bob Veres
How should you invest in a down market? If you want a guidepost, let’s look back to the terrible, traumatic down market of 2008-2009. You’re going through relentless, daily and weekly losses (remember that?), and the feeling at the time was that the global economy had suffered a mortal blow. So you get to the bottom in March of 2009, and what do you have to look forward to?
Ben Carlson, of Ritholtz Wealth Management in New York, has recently helped us with this trip down memory lane. You are looking forward to the longest-running economic expansion in modern U.S. history, with a stock market that has quadrupled. Inflation is basically non-existent despite unprecedented monetary policy actions from the Fed, and the unemployment rate has fallen from a scary 10% down to 3.7%.
The period following the Great Recession, when the future looked so gloomy, was actually pretty bright.
Of course, you’re worried about the next recession and major market downturn—as are we all. But history so far has rewarded investors who are willing to remain invested through the declines. Recessions come and go, but they don’t typically last as long as our memories might lead us to think. The economy has been in a recession roughly 15% of the years since the last world war, and in expansion 85% of the time. If we spend 85% of our time focusing on events that happen 15% of the time, instead of the other way around, it can lead to terrible investment behavior. Investing under the assumption that the next recession or downturn is right around the corner means you will always be positioned too defensively.
Year of Wealth
Movement Connects 2019 transitioning to
Going Green 2020
Our first Year of Wealth is drawing to a close. We offer our deep appreciation to Ben Wellenbach for launching Movement Connects—a program of fitness, strength, and stability practices. All of the lessons will be available as a permanent free resource on Colmanknight.com/resources. The last call of the year will be on the evening of November 21, at 7PM EST.
In January, we transition to our second Year of Wealth initiative: Going Green 2020. Partnering with sustainability expert Sarah Sutton, throughout the year we will offer education and practices to learn together about improving our relationship with the environment.
We are in the process of building our plan for the year. We’d love to hear what you know, and what you’d like to learn more about, in the way of Going Green.
What Matters Most
Sacred Year-End Practice
complete the year with wisdom,
honor what is so,
open to intention and clarity
Sowing seeds is the essence of the Sacred Year End Practice. This practice allows the inner longings of your heart to fully fuse with your awareness – honoring the sacredness of life.
Consider how you want this practice to unfold and make a declaration for its manifestation.
1) complete these three phases at different times;
2) allow plenty of time and space to create a friendly and uninterrupted environment;
3) define a time zone (e.g. between Thanksgiving and the new year, between Christmas and the new year) for completion;
4) if blocked, engage your whole body with breath, movement and curiosity;
5) arrive at each writing session by centering, meditating or deep breathing to clear and open your mind.